The WIN Team recently exhibited at the annual GBTA Convention in Chicago, Illinois which was attended by nearly 7,000 attendees representing over 50 countries.
The Global Travel Forecast 2020 session reviewed data from 68 countries and focused on factors likely to affect travel trends.
Business travel spending topped US$1.4 trillion globally in 2018. Asia Pacific accounts for 42% at US$615 billion, North America for 25% at US$391 billion and Europe for 25% at US$386 billion.
The headwinds of economic and political uncertainty in 2019 mean that business travel is slated to grow by only 3.1% this year, the slowest growth since the recession of 10 years ago. But there is forecasted growth of 4.1% from 2020, reaching +5.9% in 2023.
The global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2019 (following a 3.8% growth in 2018) and in 2020 the forecast is for 3.6% growth. The main markets that will be under pressure to reduce business travel spend are financial services, industrials and consumer discretionary. Some markets likely to be more immune to the downturn will be defence, communication and staples (food and commodities).
In advanced economies growth in 2019 is expected to be 1.8%, but in 2020 it will slide to 1.7%. Business confidence is on the wane in developed markets due to the challenges of economic climate and risks to global trade such as:
- Brexit
- US – China Tariffs
- Russia relations
- Geo-political events
Inflation remains in check, but with some key governors on price growth. Structural and cyclical areas have direct impact on the consumers need for travel.
Structural – Technology advancements and decline in manufacturing costs
Cyclical – Slow wage growth, stability with oil prices and weakening global growth
Global hotel prices are set to rise 1.3% in most regions. The highest increases are expecting in the Middle East, Africa and North America. UK prices are likely to rise due to the impact of wages increases as a result of migration impacting on staff recruitment.
If you have any questions about the above please email contact@wintravel.org